IN RECENT YEARS, INFLATION has become a problem, and the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates. They took this action against rising prices to discourage people from borrowing. When borrowing slows, spending and investment follow suit, ultimately bringing prices down. Problem solved! Except wait—what was that huge unintended consequence? As mortgage interest rates climbed, homeowners with low rates who planned to sell their homes and buy new ones decided to stay put. That meant fewer houses for sale, limiting supply and thus increasing home prices in contradiction to the Fed’s intent to cool inflation. Unfortunately, this also contributed to rent increases. Unintended consequences.
Another example of surprising results was created when nuclear power became a cleaner and more economical power source than fossil fuels. It turned out that communities are opposed to having radioactive waste buried nearby, and that when accidents happen to power plants, as they did in Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima, fear spreads and plans for new plants are scuttled. Companies go bankrupt. Prohibition also brought about surprising consequences. It was thought, “ban alcoholic beverages and people will stop drinking.” But no—crime syndicates jumped in to provide illegal booze, and people built stills and made their own whiskey.
As our world becomes more complex and unstable, unintended consequences abound. Why? To find the reasons, we first need to understand that our society is in the midst of an all-encompassing paradigm shift, from one world view to another. This is happening so slowly it goes unnoticed. Few people are aware of it, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t critically important. The old way of thinking built and sustained industrialization, so it can aptly be called the industrial paradigm. It’s an efficient, drive-to-goal view that uses linear, straight-lined thinking. It seeks the shortest route to get from A to B. It thinks in terms of cause-and-effect, often seeing one cause for one effect. We still live by many of its rules and regulations, and most of our institutions were structured by it. But it’s waning, being pushed out by a new world view that’s centered on relationships: it’s the relationship paradigm.
In contrast to this new paradigm, the industrial model saw the world in terms of separate elements or objects. Sir Isaac Newton said the world was a clock: take it apart and identify the pieces, and then you understand what a clock is. The old paradigm is a fragmentation model. It leads naturally to a focus on individuals and away from concerns about community. In the harsh world of industrialization, what does this paradigm instruct individuals to do? It tells them to compete, with the goal of beating out everyone else and winning, ultimately rising to the top of the hierarchy. To get there, they should get rid of anything in their way. Thus, the industrial model is all about conflict. But what about the new paradigm?
Systems thinking and the sciences of chaos and complexity theories are changing the way we see the world. They emphasize that while identifying the elements around us is important, what’s even more important is knowing how they connect and interact. That means relationships are key. The new paradigm is nonlinear, designed for the messy, complex world we live in now, where everything alive is nonlinear. In this view, because we pay attention to relationships, we’re always aware of the constant changes in our living world. A focus on relationships leads away from conflict and toward collaboration and community.
Paradigm vs. paradigm; linear vs. nonlinear—this is probably not familiar language, and you may think you don’t need to know a lot about it, but it could save your life. In unstable situations, what you don’t know can be lethal. Medicine used to be guided almost entirely by linear, fragmented thinking, which prompted specializations for each body part. That’s changing, thank goodness. But in earlier times you could die if your cardiologist wasn’t trained to see that the cause of your heart failure was a problem with your kidneys.
But how does a gradual shift in world views cause unintended consequences. Here’s how. During this paradigm shift, some people are holding on to the old view for dear life, while others embrace what is emerging. There’s a lot of confusion, but the struggle is clearly expressed by the polarization we see everywhere. Those who gained when they played by the rules of the industrial model feel threatened and are desperate to keep it in place because it served them well. Meanwhile, the new paradigm is establishing itself, fueled by power derived from being well-suited to our complex world. It will eventually win this paradigm fight, if there is time.
The actions of the current US administration express the desperation of those hanging on to what’s over. Those in the executive branch are attacking as many agencies and institutions as they can, as fast as they can. The list is long; what follows is a sample. They are ending funding for USAID (which will hurt vulnerable populations around the world); firing thousands of federal workers; ending health programs; undercutting support for K-12 education; threatening the postal system; weakening the FBI and Department of Defense; planning to privatize Social Security and cripple Medicaid; and attacking civil rights protections for LGBTQ individuals, racial minorities, and women.
These attacks express the ethos of the industrial paradigm by trying to chainsaw away or at least weaken anything that can get in the way of the wealthy becoming wealthier. In a fragmented world—and remember, we still inhabit that paradigm to a large degree—some people would fight for civil rights protections, some for restoring USAID funding, some for education support, and so on. In other words, we would focus on the separate parts. And we would all lose. The details keep piling up. There are too many, and we would get distracted and worn out.
The relationship paradigm, however, tells us to step back and look for a particular kind of relationship—a pattern. What is the pattern in the administration’s behavior? Look closely and you will see that everything they do is an attack on people and the natural environment. There is no room for compassion or kindness in a value system that prioritizes wealth and power, and there is no skill set for appreciating relationships. (According to Elon Musk, compassion is a weakness.) Using such a mindset, people will continually be surprised by consequences they neither intended nor expected, especially when each consequence can give rise to others. So how can these officials understand that if you don’t support the people and Nature, even the wealthiest will be harmed. This is why we’re seeing so many of these surprising consequences at the end of the industrial era. People in power are trying to pound the square pegs of the industrial paradigm into the round holes of the relationship world view. The sparks that fly out are the unintended consequences. Elon Musk was surprised that his governmental gouging cut into his Tesla profits and made him a pariah. These were consequences that could not be foreseen by one so steeped in the industrial paradigm.
Now we must all watch for the consequences that come about as a result of the administration’s massive attacks. Many will not be intended, and it will get interesting. Put all the people together with Mother Nature and you have a strong countervailing force.